Migration to Red States Bolstered Trump’s Electoral College Victory

Reapportionment gave red states more Electoral College votes than they had in the 2020 presidential election.

Though a small handful of votes are still being counted across the country, former President Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election with an estimated 312 Electoral College votes. In what was expected to be a close election, Trump won handily after sweeping Vice President Kamala Harris in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump is also expected to win the national popular vote once all votes have been counted.

Trump’s victory was aided by the reapportionment that happened in 2020. Reapportionment is the redistribution of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives based on population changes as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau. Reapportionment happens every 10 years at the federal level. 

Reapportionment affects not only how many seats in Congress belong to each individual state, but it also changes how many Electoral College votes each state has in presidential elections. 

In 2020, the U.S. Census Bureau measured a flight of citizens from California, Illinois, Michigan, New York,  Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia to the states of Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, Oregon and Texas. 

Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each received an additional seat in Congress and an additional Electoral College vote as a result of 2020 apportionment while California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia each lost one seat. Texas received two additional Congressional seats and Electoral College votes as a result of reapportionment. 

Thus, Harris entered the 2024 presidential election at a disadvantage to Trump based on the 2024 Electoral College map versus what it looked like in 2020. The solid blue states of California, Illinois and New York each lost a seat while the historically red states of Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Montana each gained at least one seat.