GasBuddy Forecast Signals Continued Relief at the Pump After Years of Elevated Fuel Costs

GasBuddy’s outlook attributes the decline to higher refinery output and moderating demand.

The national average price of regular gasoline is projected to fall below $3 per gallon in 2026 for the first time since 2020, according to the GasBuddy 2026 Fuel Price Outlook released this week. 

The forecast estimates a yearly average of $2.97 per gallon, down about 13 cents from the 2025 average of $3.10, and marks the fourth straight annual decline in average pump prices.

GasBuddy, a fuel price tracking and analysis platform, calculates the projected average by averaging monthly forecasts across the calendar year. 

The company’s outlook anticipates that drivers will enjoy relatively lower pump prices than the highs seen in earlier administrations.

Seasonal patterns remain a factor, with prices likely to rise modestly in the spring as refineries switch to more expensive summer-grade fuel before easing again later in the year.

Regional price differences are expected to persist, with areas such as the Gulf Coast and Southern states projected to remain comfortably below $3, while states like California and regions in the Northeast may see higher averages despite the overall national decline.

The outlook comes as U.S. crude oil prices have stabilized following pandemic-era disruptions and as global refining capacity has expanded, according to GasBuddy’s analysis. 

The report also forecasts that diesel prices will remain elevated relative to gasoline, with a national average of about $3.55 per gallon in 2026.