1 in 8 Republicans Say They Will Not Vote in Midterms if Save America Act Fails

Additionally, another 12% of GOP voters also state they are “unsure” if they would turn out—bringing nearly one-fourth of the base into a risky lower-turnout category.

Republican voters are watching the Senate closely as the fate of the Save America Act remains uncertain. The bill has become a litmus test for whether Republican lawmakers will follow through on years of promises around election integrity and restoring confidence in the system.

New survey data reveals that a meaningful share of Republican voters may sit out upcoming midterm elections if the legislation fails.

According to the poll by McLaughlin & Associates, 1 in 8 Republicans say they are less likely to vote if the Save America Act does not pass. Additionally, another 1 in 8 say they are unsure whether they will turn out at all. Combined, that puts roughly one-quarter of Republican voters into a lower-turnout category tied directly to the bill’s outcome.

Nearly 9 in 10 Republican voters support passage of the legislation and its provision to both curtail mail-in ballots, with some exceptions, and require proof of United States citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.

The survey was conducted in Maine, Georgia, and North Carolina—three states with upcoming battleground races that will undoubtedly determine which Party controls the Senate.

In Maine, the presumptive nominee is longtime incumbent Senator Susan Collins (R-ME), who initially showed support for the Save America Act but later stated she would not support forcing Democrats into a filibuster. The state itself remains structurally difficult for Republicans because statewide coalitions consistently outpace GOP performance in the urban and coastal corridor, forcing reliance on high rural turnout to stay competitive. If Collins backs out on the Save America Act, she risks being abandoned by her own Party on Election Day.

Georgia is even more volatile. Earlier today, Cook Political Report shifted its forecast for the race from a “tossup” to a “leans Democrat.” Being one of two Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in 2026 in a state that President Trump won last cycle, Republicans have hoped they can reclaim the seat from one-time incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who won by less than 1 percentage point in a 2021 runoff election.

North Carolina offers Republicans their clearest path of the three, but only if turnout remains strong enough to offset Democratic strength in the state’s metro regions. In 2022, Senator Ted Budd (R-NC) won his race by 3.2 percentage points. Had 12–24% of Republican voters stayed home, there is little doubt he would have lost. 

Similarly, that same drop in turnout in 2024 would have almost undoubtedly cost then-candidate Donald Trump the presidency.

No matter how well a campaign is run, if enough Republican voters have already resigned themselves to staying home in protest, it presents a tremendous opportunity for Democrats.

As it stands, several Senate Republicans have not committed to the Save America Act. Public tracking lists maintained by advocacy groups and Senate observers continue to identify undecided members, including Senators John Barrasso (R-WY), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), and Tom Cotton (R-AR).

Another bloc of holdouts—including Senators John Hoeven (R-ND), Jim Justice (R-WV), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Chuck Grassley (R-IO), Deb Fischer (R-NE), Jerry Moran (KS), and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD)—along with Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who has outright opposed the Save America Act, are currently in the process of reauthorizing the Farm Bill via the Senate Agriculture Committee. Chair John Boozman (R-AR), who has also not taken a public position on the Save America Act, said a Farm Bill measure is “weeks, not months” away.

This bill in particular will prove to be a reliable target for lobbying pressure, as the previous iteration passed in 2018 was one of the largest annual conduits for politically targeted pork barrel spending in the form of commodity subsidies that flow heavily to large-scale row crop producers, crop insurance programs backed by financial institutions and agribusiness intermediaries, and nutrition assistance funding. 

In other words, lawmakers seem preoccupied with bills where lobbyists are working the hardest to ensure financial wins for the clients they represent. Not on national election reform.

Meanwhile, President Trump has continued to rally for the passage of the Save America Act, arguing it “must be done immediately” and that the bill “supersedes everything else.”

“The Save America Act is one of the most IMPORTANT & CONSEQUENTIAL pieces of legislation in the history of Congress, and America itself… Only sick, demented, or deranged people in the House or Senate could vote against THE SAVE AMERICA ACT,” wrote President Trump. “If they do, each one of these points, separately, will be used against the user in his/her political campaign for office - A guaranteed loss!

In hotly-contested races where margins are often measured in mere thousands of votes, a shift of 12-24% is certainly enough to disrupt otherwise reliable outcomes. As a reminder, during the last general election, California's 45th Congressional District election saw Republican incumbent Michelle Steel losing her seat in Congress to newcomer Derek Tran—who had never held office—by a razor-thin 653 votes.

Midterm elections in particular—even more so than general elections—are decided by who turns out. Or perhaps—more accurately—who doesn’t. By all accounts, 2026 will be no different, and experts have long warned that this cycle was already going to be a difficult one for Republicans. We now know, thanks to the latest survey, that a serious contingency of the party hinges on what happens next with the Save America Act.